| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Ole Miss | 7-63 | 1260.8 | -2.1 | 1258.7 | 3.4% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Memphis | 16-38 | 1258.7 | -8.4 | 1250.3 | 7.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Murray State | 37-21 | 1250.3 | +0.0 | 1250.3 | 19.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Vanderbilt | 21-70 | 1250.3 | -5.7 | 1244.6 | 8.9% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | James Madison | 7-14 | 1244.6 | -12.6 | 1232.0 | 11.2% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | App State | 20-41 | 1232.0 | -24.6 | 1207.4 | 22.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Georgia Southern | 24-41 | 1207.4 | -18.0 | 1189.4 | 27.0% |
| 10 | Oct 23 2025 | L | South Alabama | 31-38 | 1189.4 | -40.6 | 1148.8 | 39.9% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Coastal Carolina | 27-40 | 1148.8 | -7.7 | 1141.1 | 12.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Marshall | 18-30 | 1141.1 | -12.7 | 1128.4 | 11.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Troy | 19-31 | 1128.4 | -8.1 | 1120.3 | 12.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 10-27 | 1120.3 | -3.9 | 1116.4 | 6.3% |